President Donald Trump, in his recent interview with Fox News, claimed that his proposed $5 million Gold Card, offering permanent residency and a pathway to U.S. citizenship, could revolutionize America’s economy by attracting millions of wealthy immigrants.
Trump argues that the initiative could potentially attract one million buyers, raising $5 trillion, or even ten million buyers, generating an astonishing $50 trillion. Such bold claims have sparked intense debate regarding both their feasibility and broader implications.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick supported Trump’s ambitious projection by suggesting globally around 37 million individuals possess sufficient wealth to purchase such an expensive visa.
However, this number has generated considerable skepticism among financial analysts. According to the 2023 World Wealth Report published by Capgemini, the global count of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs)—those with assets exceeding $30 million—stands at approximately 392,410.
Given this, Lutnick’s projection appears highly optimistic, significantly exceeding the actual number of individuals likely willing and financially able to invest $5 million in U.S. residency.
Trump’s assertion of attracting ten million investors, thus collecting $50 trillion, also appears unrealistic when juxtaposed with global economic statistics.
For perspective, global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was approximately $105 trillion in 2023. Expecting nearly half of the world’s total economic output to flow into purchasing residency visas is improbable by most economic assessments.
Nevertheless, Lutnick reported an encouraging initial response, stating that a remarkable 1,000 Gold Cards, amounting to $5 billion, were sold within the first day alone.
Such early success suggests strong initial interest from wealthy individuals worldwide. Yet, questions persist about the sustainability of this demand and the comprehensive vetting process required to manage the influx effectively.
Further insight into the programme’s genesis was provided by Lutnick during a podcast discussion, highlighting its origin in conversations between Trump and investor John Paulson, who suggested monetizing visas rather than distributing them freely.
Lutnick described rapid implementation, even mentioning that entrepreneur Elon Musk was developing the software platform to manage the scheme.
Despite the apparent quick success, concerns remain regarding transparency, vetting, and potential geopolitical motivations behind wealthy investors’ decisions to seek U.S. residency.
Furthermore, Trump’s early policy moves through multiple executive orders in his first 100 days in office created considerable uncertainty in markets, leading to widespread volatility and steep declines in major stock exchanges.
The imposition of a broad-based 25% tariff sent shockwaves through international trade relations, provoking intense responses from several trading partners.
Notably, Canada, currently in election mode, reacted strongly and threatened to suspend electricity exports critical to three U.S. states, including New York’s commercial and industrial hubs.
Additionally, Trump’s provocative geopolitical statements—including threats to annex Greenland, repossess the Panama Canal, annex Canada, and relocate Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank—have stirred significant international unrest.
Such volatility could discourage wealthy global investors from committing substantial funds to U.S. residency. Investors typically seek political and economic stability as key conditions for substantial financial decisions, and current conditions may lead them to postpone their investments until uncertainty subsides.
This raises the issue of the sustainability of Trump’s proposed Gold Card program, particularly given the transient nature of political administrations and their policies.
Trump’s approach of reversing many policies from the Biden administration suggests subsequent administrations may similarly reverse his initiatives. This dynamic introduces significant long-term uncertainties into the program’s viability.
Moreover, another potential complication lies in the regulatory measures wealthy individuals’ home countries might enact to prevent capital outflow.
Countries with large reserves of wealthy individuals, such as China, Russia, and India, might implement strict currency transfer restrictions to prevent significant foreign exchange depletion.
Such measures could force potential investors to resort to alternative, possibly illicit, methods for transferring substantial sums, thereby creating irregularities and increasing reliance on informal financial networks.
Despite these challenges, the fundamental economic rationale behind Trump’s Gold Card initiative remains noteworthy. Even if a fraction of the targeted wealthy individuals invested in this programme, the U.S. economy could witness significant financial inflows.
These inflows could dramatically boost American businesses, spur real estate and infrastructure development, and create substantial employment opportunities, potentially helping manage or reduce the escalating U.S. national debt.
Nonetheless, the initiative carries significant risks. The allure of such a prestigious residency programme could attract individuals with opaque financial backgrounds, including politically connected oligarchs, individuals associated with authoritarian regimes, or even those linked to organized crime and corruption. Such scenarios raise severe concerns around money laundering, increased domestic corruption, and heightened criminal activities within U.S. borders.
Nationality-specific dynamics also greatly influence the potential success and associated risks of the Gold Card proposal. Wealthy individuals from China, numbering over 32,000 UHNWIs, may find the visa appealing as a safeguard against domestic economic uncertainties and tightening governmental control.
Similarly, approximately 8,500 Russian UHNWIs, some of whom are subject to Western sanctions, might leverage this opportunity to protect their wealth from international scrutiny.
India’s rapidly growing population of over 15,000 UHNWIs could also see this initiative as a viable avenue for global investment diversification and international business expansion. Likewise, affluent individuals from politically unstable Middle Eastern regions could regard the Gold Card as a means of securing financial and personal stability.
However, these potential economic advantages carry inherent risks related to economic manipulation, potential foreign control over critical U.S. industries, and undue influence in political processes. Individuals backed by adversarial states could use their new status to influence U.S. stock markets, acquire sensitive national assets, or distort legislative and judicial outcomes.
To mitigate these risks, rigorous and thorough screening procedures, accompanied by stringent regulatory compliance measures, are crucial. Transparent governance practices and robust oversight mechanisms must underpin the implementation of the Gold Card programme to safeguard U.S. national security and economic stability.
Ultimately, while the idea has potential economic merits, careful policy execution and geopolitical considerations will be critical to the initiative’s success.
(The writer is a former Press Secretary to the President, An ex-Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France, a former MD, SRBC Macomb, Detroit, Michigan)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The writer is a former Press Secretary to the President, An ex-Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France, a former MD, SRBC Macomb, Detroit, Michigan
Comments