Will tariffs drive food prices up even more?

Tariffs are likely to hit Americans in their stomach, as experts say food prices are bound to rise even more in a sector already pinched by inflation that drove food prices up nearly 3% higher than last February.

More than a quarter of adults say that food costs are already a burden and nearly 1 in 7 households fit into the food-insecure category, according to Traceone, which specializes in regulatory compliance for the food and beverage industry.

The U.S. imports more food products than it exports, at close to 20% of its food supply. Around $213 billion in agricultural products were imported in 2024, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with top suppliers including Mexico, Canada and the European Union. Beef imports were up 23% last year, from countries including Brazil and Australia.

Per Traceone, “The U.S. has traditionally exported more agricultural goods than it imported, but this balance has shifted in recent years as import growth has outpaced exports. Demand for imported goods has surged, driven by factors such as a strong U.S. dollar and consumer preferences for year-round access to fresh produce."

For example, close to 60% of the fruits and nuts consumed in the U.S. are imported, the company said. More than half of milled grains are imported. And if you love seafood, be aware that as much as 80% of that consumed in the U.S. comes from international sources.

In 2023, the U.S. imported nearly twice as much “foodstuff” as Germany, which imports the second-most food. Foodstuff refers to products designed to be eaten.

Top import categories include coffee and cocoa, fresh and processed produce, and grains and feeds.

Prices in major categories are already up, year over year, NBC News reported last week. As of March 1, eggs, fresh ground beef, orange juice, chicken breast, bacon and bread all cost more than the same time in 2024. And those are just the items the article compared.

Unlike some of the rising prices that could be associated with tariffs, there is unlikely to be a grace period before the cost of food starts weighing on families, as Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at Yale University’s Budget Lab, told Yahoo!finance just before the tariffs were announced.

“I think for perishable goods, things like fresh produce, you’re going to see those price increases relatively quickly at the grocery store,” he said, noting that we import a lot of agriculture from other countries.

“For durable goods, things like electronics, large appliances, automobiles, that takes a little bit longer, like on the order of a few months because retailers will work through the inventory that they already have in stock first before they move on to the tariffed inventory,” Tedeschi said.

And besides the prices of food itself, increased costs passed onto packaging, transportation and other supply chain issues could impact what consumers pay, too.

A complex supply chain

AgFunder News, which covers the food and agriculture industries, reported that the impact on food prices and supplies could be substantial. The article quoted Cathy Burns, CEO at the International Fresh Produce Association, who said many fruits and vegetables don’t grow in the U.S. or don’t have very long seasons. And consumers want what they want when they want it.

While noting that specialty crops and other goods that comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement are exempt from the tariffs, “the imposition of tariffs increases costs, disrupts supply chains, and ultimately drives up grocery prices,” she said in a statement. “Fresh produce trade is uniquely complex, shaped by seasonal and regional factors that make a well-functioning market essential for year-round availability.”

It’s also an international, interconnected supply chain that includes many global trading partners, per Burns, who said “exemptions for fresh produce and florals, alongside regulatory reform and a secure agricultural workforce, is the best path forward to supporting American growers, businesses and consumers.”

Fresh fruits and vegetables are also a big concern for the The National Restaurant Association. In a statement responding to the tariff announcement, the group’s CEO and President Michelle Korsmo said that “restaurant operators rely on a stable supply of fresh ingredients year-round to provide the menu items their customers want and expect. Many restaurant operators source as many domestic ingredients as they can, but it’s simply not possible for U.S. farmers and ranchers to produce the volumes needed to support consumer demand.”

She predicted some restaurant operators would struggle to stay open. “The biggest concerns for restaurant operators — from community restaurants to national brands — are that tariffs will hike food and packaging costs and add uncertainty to managing availability, while pushing prices up for consumers."

Food costs have already gone up 40% for restaurants with inflation in the past five years, she said, but most restaurant operators have kept menu prices increases to 30%.

NPR reported that tariffs are likely to “upend markets American farmers depend on.” What U.S. farmers import such as heavy equipment, fertilizers and seed in order to produce food will cost them more, too, while the prices they earn on what they sell will go down.

What’s coming into the U.S.

VisualCapitalist.com lists the top U.S. food imports by country, noting the U.S. “imports many everyday food items from around the world.” A core consumer food value is a preference for year-round and tropical products. For example, the site shows, based on data culled from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and resourcetrade.earth:

• From Mexico, the U.S. top imports for produce are tomatoes ($2.5 billion), avocados ($2.1 billion) and fresh peppers ($1.4 billion), as well as many, many other fruits and vegetables.
• From Guatemala, the top import is bananas ($1 billion).
• From Chile, $606 million in grapes.
• From Peru, $547 million in cranberries and blueberries.
• From Costa Rica, $545 million in pineapples.
• From Canada, top produce imports are mushrooms ($261 million) and potatoes ($251 million).
• From Thailand, $163 million in single-fruit-or-vegetable juice.
• From China, $158 million in apple juice.
• From Brazil, $137 million in fresh orange juice.

The U.S. also imports beef and pork from Canada, sheep meat from Australia, beef from New Zealand, salami and similar products from Italy, poultry from Chile and beef from Mexico.

We get fish and seafood most often from India, Chile, China and Canada.

Our oil, fats and oilseeds come from Canada, Indonesia, Italy, Philippines, Mexico and Spain.

Most of the oats, barley, corn and wheat we import for cereals come from Canada, while rice is imported primarily from Thailand.

We get dairy products from Italy, New Zealand and Ireland.

Coffee, tobacco, spices and bottled water come from a variety of places, including Switzerland, Cote D’Ivoire, Madagascar, Netherlands, Vietnam, Germany, Brazil and Fiji. We import different products from each of them. For instance, Fiji is a main supplier of bottled water.

Our nuts, seeds and beans come from Vietnam, Mexico and Canada.

Mexico provides some sugar products, while Canada provides maple syrup and sugar.