The only way to make MLB picks is to make them boldly. Baseball writers Ryan Fagan and Zach Crizer pick a winner and dish out a bold prediction for each division.
“Domestic” opening day is here, and with Thursday’s full slate of Major League Baseball games comes the moment when the logic and reason of projections gives way to the chaos of the season.
Across 162 games, there are always surprises – to the extent that the surest way to make incorrect predictions would be expecting last year’s best teams to rise to the top again.
Even though the separation between the haves and have-nots seem to be at an all-time high, there are still surprises each and every year. Since MLB expanded the postseason field with the second wild card in 2012, roughly half of all playoff teams have come from the pool of clubs that missed October the previous season.
In 2024, the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers were surprise playoff teams, and the New York Mets and San Diego Padres made the field in the National League even though they weren’t widely expected to heading in.
So the only way to make MLB picks for the 2025 season is to make them boldly. Below, baseball writers Ryan Fagan and Zach Crizer pick a winner and dish out a bold prediction for each division.
We’ll also throw in our TRACR projection model’s favorites, determined by the highest probability of winning the division (in parenthesis).
AL East
Fagan’s Winner: Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees were the pick as the calendar turned to 2025 even after losing Juan Soto to the Mets – Max Fried was an outstanding signing, and Cody Bellinger seems a perfect fit for that defense and that right-field porch – but losing Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (out at least three months) is just a devastating blow. The Boston Red Sox are a tempting choice, more because of the potential impact of AL Rookie of the Year sleepers Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer than the addition of Alex Bregman, though that was solid. And the Tampa Bay Rays, well, never count out the Rays.
For the Baltimore Orioles, at this point fans have to have completely given up on the idea of the franchise adding a long-term ace via trade or free agency, right? Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton are solid, but not what you’d want from a top-of-the-rotation punch for a World Series contender. Grayson Rodriguez could be that guy atop the rotation. Still, there’s a ton of talent in the lineup, led by MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson, and Felix Bautista is back to anchor the bullpen.
Fagan’s bold prediction: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., will be in a new uniform after the trade deadline. The Toronto Blue Jays will again be the worst team in the division – not awful by any stretch, but they’ll finish fifth – and there seem to be scant few indications the Jays and their star are close to a massive extension. Expect Vlad to be on the move (and Bo Bichette, too) in exchange for MLB-ready talent as Toronto resets.
Crizer’s Winner: Boston Red Sox
It’s a new day at Fenway Park. Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman and Walker Buehler bring much needed legitimacy to their bid for real contention, but it’s the kids who are adding the electricity. Second baseman Kristian Campbell made the roster out of camp. Top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer might not be far behind.
The Red Sox suddenly appear to be carrying the most potential in this division as other purported contenders had offseason plans fail to take flight or saw key contributors hit the shelf in spring training.
Crizer’s bold prediction: How about some postseason baseball in a minor-league park? The division will supply three AL postseason teams, and one of them will be the Tampa Bay Rays. The depth of talent in the AL East still has an upper hand over the rest of the league. The Rays, in particular, have a serious chance to boast about baseball’s best pitching staff if Shane McClanahan’s injury scare proves as minor as it sounds. And third baseman Junior Caminero already put the league on notice that his breakout is probably a matter of time.
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: New York Yankees (68.5%)
AL Central
Fagan’s Winner: Cleveland Guardians
Let’s be honest: The most shocking thing about the 2024 season wasn’t Shohei Ohtani going 50/50 or Aaron Judge bashing 58 home runs. It was the AL Central claiming two of the three AL wild cards and sending three teams to the playoffs. All three teams – the Guardians, Royals and Tigers – will be good again, and the Minnesota Twins (if they can stay healthy) could be right in the mix, too. That Detroit rotation, especially, could be elite, but the lineup needs another bat or two. All four of those teams (sorry, Chicago White Sox fans) offer a compelling reason to believe they can win the division title. Those four teams, though, also have at least one area that is more than a little bit concerning. So this is a bailout, maybe, but the benefit of the doubt goes to the Guardians and their fearless leader, the incredible Jose Ramirez.
Fagan’s bold prediction: Luis Robert, Jr., gets back to the postseason for the first time since 2022. It will not be with the White Sox, though (of course). He looked like his old dynamic self this spring, and a solid start to the season will make contenders forget all about his putrid 2024 campaign amidst all the White Sox misery. His deal has two option years remaining, at $20 million each (with a $2 million buyout) and that will look pretty appealing if he’s playing at a level even close to his immense full potential.
Crizer’s Winner: Detroit Tigers
This division has been in a blender since 2020, and if you feel confident in a pick here you’re probably wrong. So, with that said: I like the Tigers’ upside. TRACR rates the Guardians and Royals, led by AL MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr., more highly for understandable reasons, but Detroit’s late surge in 2024 featured some signs of a new reality. Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter wield actual power at the top of the order, and Gleyber Torres was one of the savviest signings of the winter.
Then there’s Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The dominant lefty has to be the prohibitive favorite to win again, and this year he’ll (presumably) have a full season of reinforcements thanks to the return of Jack Flaherty and the rise of Jackson Jobe.
Crizer’s bold prediction: Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan will receive his first MVP votes by belting 20 homers and stealing 20 bases to go with his elite contact rates and plate discipline.
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Kansas City Royals (45.0%)
AL West
Fagan’s Winner: Texas Rangers
This is such a tough division to predict. The Houston Astros are normally the easy choice because, well, they always find a way to win the division. But Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are gone, and Jose Altuve is moving to an outfield spot for his age-35 season. It’s fair to wonder about their offense. The Seattle Mariners have pitching riches, even with George Kirby out, but yikes that lineup is lacking around a few key pieces.
Pretty much everything went wrong for the Rangers last year – it wasn’t just the World Series hangover – but that lineup still has the potential to be really dynamic (their projected No. 7 hitter, Jake Burger, would probably bat cleanup for the M’s or Astros). Wyatt Langford is a darkhorse MVP candidate in his second year in the bigs, and if Evan Carter can ever get his swing back, that would be a huge boost. And, if Jacob deGrom stays healthy (obviously, a big if) and the pitching holds – and youngsters Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter take steps forward – this is the only team in the division capable of running away with the title. That’s a lot of ifs, though.
Fagan’s bold prediction: Athletics outfielder Lawrence Butler will make the All-Star team, and not just because every franchise needs a representative. Butler struggled to harness his talent through the first couple months of the 2024 season, but his numbers from July on were really impressive: .302 average, .943 OPS and 20 homers in 73 games. And, oh yeah, he was 18 for 18 in stolen base attempts. That was his age-23 season. Kid’s gonna be a star.
Crizer’s Winner: Houston Astros
Call me when they don’t find a way to win this division. Yes, the team looks different after the departure of Alex Bregman and the trade of Kyle Tucker. Jose Altuve is in left field. There’s a general shrug-inducing shuffle in center and right, but Tucker trade gem Cam Smith is making the jump straight to the majors. Throw in starting pitching depth and the ongoing gravitational presence of Yordan Alvarez’s bat and this is still the club with the fewest questions.
Crizer’s bold prediction: The A’s will finish third – which will come as a shock to one of the teams that fully expects to compete for this division crown. The Mariners lack any margin for error in the lineup; the Rangers have a team-wide gulf between burgeoning young talents and big names in the decline phase.
Meanwhile, the club that will play 2025 in Sacramento has a good amount of upside, with Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker leading the lineup and new acquisitions Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs bolstering the rotation.
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Houston Astros (48.4%)
NL East
Fagan’s Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
As currently constructed, the Phillies are the most complete team in a very good division, and they’re healthier than the Mets or Atlanta Braves right now. In the race for 95 or more wins, which is what it’s probably going to take to win the NL East, health matters when it comes to division predictions.
In Philadelphia, Zack Wheeler is still elite (see below), and filling out the rotation with Aaron Nola, Jesus Luzardo, Christopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez is pretty impressive. If Atlanta is still hanging around when they get both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider back, though? Don’t be surprised to see the Braves vault up the standings. Same for the Mets with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas.
Fagan’s bold prediction: Xavier Edwards gives Miami Marlins fans a reason to watch as he challenges Elly De La Cruz for the NL stolen base title. The diminutive middle infielder was really good last year, batting .328 with a .397 on-base percentage in 70 games, after batting .351 in Triple-A in 2023. Last year, Edwards swiped 31 bases in 35 attempts in the bigs, and there’s no reason for the Marlins to put up the stop sign when he’s on the base paths.
Crizer’s Winner: Atlanta Braves
With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider on the way back from devastating injuries early in the season, Atlanta is poised to reclaim its control over the division. Two years after posting record-setting offensive numbers, the Braves are a bankable pitching operation. Their staff projects as the second-most effective in baseball behind only the Mariners, and it’s not just reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale. Young starter Spencer Schwellenbach, who posted a sterling 82 raw value- in his rookie season, is a force unto himself.
Crizer’s bold prediction: The Mets churn out another pitching renovation project who winds up earning Cy Young votes, as Sean Manaea did in 2024. Clay Holmes, Yankees reliever turned opening day starter, is the obvious choice thanks to the new toys in his arsenal – get ready to hear about a lot of new cutters and kick-changes – but he’s not the only candidate. Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning also have some upward arrows pointing their way heading into the regular season.
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Atlanta Braves (43.3%)
NL Central
Fagan’s Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
At this point, the Brewers are in their “don’t bet against them winning the division” era. Yeah, they definitely have questions to answer – and they need starting pitchers to stop getting hurt – but that’s a winning culture in Milwaukee. Oh, and don’t be at all surprised if Jackson Chourio finishes in the top 10 in the NL MVP voting after placing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2024. The pair of opposite-field homers he hit in the postseason was really impressive. The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are on the rise, though, and it wouldn’t be shocking if all three teams finished in the 87-to-91 win range.
Fagan’s bold prediction: St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Victor Scott II will be the breakout star in this division. He was overwhelmed by the big leagues last season – he clearly wasn’t ready, mentally or physically – but he spent the offseason acknowledging and working on those areas of inadequacy and the results this spring were impressive. Seriously, read about the pen-and-paper notebook he meticulously uses. Not only is he a potential Gold Glove outfielder, but he was driving the ball all over the park this spring.
Crizer’s Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
It always seems like the Brewers should get surpassed by the latest big move or hot young core elsewhere in the Central. Lately, it hasn’t proven true. Winners of this division in three of the past four years, Milwaukee’s front office maintains a deep roster and makes its players better. This year’s edition might look like it has less star power than the Cubs, but Jackson Chourio and William Contreras aren’t going to stop ascending just because fewer people know their names.
Crizer’s bold prediction: The return of Terry Francona coincides with the return of postseason baseball in Cincinnati. Continued Elly De La Cruz fireworks and a full arrival for Matt McLain headline a dynamic Reds offense that subtly improved on the margins by adding Gavin Lux and Austin Hays. The pitching behind Hunter Greene holds up just well enough to snag a wild card.
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Milwaukee Brewers (44.8%)
NL West
Fagan’s Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Arizona Diamondbacks have added Corbin Burnes to the front of the rotation and will be really good. They’re a dangerous playoff opponent, but the goal here is to choose the team best-suited to win the most games over a six-month time period, and the Dodgers are the easy choice.
For as much as Dodgers fans are looking forward to seeing Yoshinobu Yamamoto over a full season, and watching Roki Sasaki’s debut, the return of Dustin May to the rotation could have just as big of an impact. The San Francisco Giants and Padres could/should be players in the wild-card race, but not in the division. And the Dodgers will win the World Series once again.
Fagan’s bold prediction: Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar represents the Colorado Rockies in the All-Star Game this summer. Last year, in his age-23 season, Tovar led the NL with 45 doubles, to go with 26 homers and a Gold Glove in the field. He’s gotta do something about that outlandish strikeout-to-walk ratio – he struck out 200 times, with just 23 walks – but that type of zone discipline often comes with a little more big-league experience. If he even gets that to 40/175, his numbers could jump.
Crizer’s Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
No need to get cute, right? The prevailing question this spring has been whether the Dodgers are so good as to be unhealthy for the game. I don’t buy that line of thinking, but it’s hard to deny the obvious favorite status of a club running out Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman behind a van load of the nastiest pitchers you’ve ever seen.
So: Division title? Yes, it must be expected. Mark me down as a firm under on 116 wins, though.
Crizer’s bold prediction: The Diamondbacks will push the Dodgers until the end, finishing with the second-best record in the NL behind a resurgent starting rotation and a full season of excellence from Corbin Carroll.
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers (65.5%)
World Series
Crizer’s Winner: Diamondbacks over Astros
Fagan’s Winner: Dodgers over Tigers
Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Dodgers over Yankees
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